---
url: https://gaojian.site/new-concept/book-3/51-predicting-the-future.md
description: 新概念英语第三册：Predicting the Future。精读、词块回忆、双向译练、句法、逻辑与FSRS复习。
---

# 预测未来

## 课文学习台 {#study}

### 第1段

Predicting the future is notoriously difficult. Who could have imagined, in the mid 1970s, for example, that by the end of the 20th century, computers would be as common in people's homes as TV sets? In the 1970s, computers were common enough, but only in big business, government departments, and large organizations. These were the so-called mainframe machines. Mainframe computers were very large indeed, often occupying whole air-conditioned rooms, employing full-time technicians and run on specially-written software. Though these large machines still exist, many of their functions have been taken over by small powerful personal computers, commonly known as PCs.

中文理解：众所周知，预测未来是非常困难的。举个例子吧，在20世纪70年代中叶又有谁能想像得到在20世纪末的时候，家庭用的计算机会像电视机一样普遍？在70年代，计算机已经相当普及了，但只用在大公司，政府部门和大的组织之中，它们被称为主机。计算机主机确实很大，常常占据整间装有空调的房间，需要专职技师维护，而且得用专门编写的软件才能运行。虽然这种大计算机仍然存在，但它们的许多功能已被体积小、性能强大的个人电脑——即我们常说的 PC 机——所代替了。

* **for example**：例如；例子要证明前面的判断；可换内容，不必换这个常用表达。

#### 这一段的读法与用法

注释：①for example 作表同位关系的连接状语。②predicting = saying what will happen。 ③imagined = seen in the mind。④whole = complete。⑤functions = jobs, tasks。

### 第2段

In 1975, a primitive machine called the Altair, was launched in the USA. It can properly be described as the first "home computer" and it pointed the way to the future. This was followed, at the end of the 1970s, by a machine called an Apple. In the early 1980s, the computer giant, IBM produced the world's first Personal Computer. This ran on an "operating system" called DOS, produced by a then small company named Microsoft. The IBM Personal Computer was widely copied. From those humble beginnings, we have seen the development of the user-friendly home computers and multimedia machines which are in common use today.

中文理解：1975年，美国推出了一台被称为“牛郎星”的原始机型。严格地说起来，它可以被称为第一台“家用电脑”，而且它也指明了今后发展的方向。70年代末，在“牛郎星” 之后又出现了一种被称为“苹果”的机型。80年代初，计算机行业的王牌公司美国国际商务机器公司（IBM）生产出了世界上第一台个人电脑。这种电脑采用了一种被称为磁盘操作系统（DOS）的工作程序，而这种程序是由当时规模不大的微软公司生产的。IBM 的个人电脑被大规模地仿制。从那些简陋的开端，我们看到了现在都已普及的、使用简便的家用电脑和多媒体微机的发展。

* **at the end of**：发信号或消息 / 在……结束时 / 日夜；at the end of 明确某个末尾；in the end 总结最终结果。

#### 这一段的读法与用法

注释：①primitive = very simple, undeveloped。②humble = small, low。 ③in common use = used by almost everybody, employed generally。

### 第3段

Considering how recent these developments are, it is even more remarkable that as long ago as the 1960s, an Englishman, Leon Bagrit, was able to predict some of the uses of computers which we know today. Bagrit dismissed the idea that computers would learn to "think" for themselves and would "rule the world", which people liked to believe in those days. Bagrit foresaw a time when computers would be small enough to hold in the hand, when they would be capable of providing information about traffic jams and suggesting alternative routes, when they would be used in hospitals to help doctors to diagnose illnesses, when they would relieve office workers and accountants of dull, repetitive clerical work. All these computer uses have become commonplace. Of course, Leon Bagrit could not possibly have foreseen the development of the Internet, the worldwide system that enables us to communicate instantly with anyone in any part of the world by using computers linked to telephone networks. Nor could he have foreseen how we could use the Internet to obtain information on every known subject, so we can read it on a screen in our homes and even print it as well if we want to. Computers have become smaller and smaller, more and more powerful and cheaper and cheaper. This is what makes Leon Bagrit's predictions particularly remarkable. If he, or someone like him, were alive today, he might be able to tell us what to expect in the next fifty years.

中文理解：想一下这些发展的时间是多么的短，就更觉得英国人莱昂·巴格瑞特有着非凡的能力。他在 60年代就能预言我们今天知道的计算机的一些用途。巴格瑞特根本不接受计算机可以学会自己去 “思考”和计算机会“统治世界”这种想法，而这种想法是当时的人们都愿意相信的。巴格瑞特预言有一天计算机可以小到拿在手上，可以用来提供交通拥挤的资讯，并建议其他行程路线；可以在医院应用，辅助医生诊疗；还可以使办公室人员和会计免除那些枯燥、重复的劳动。计算机的所有这些功能现在都变得很平常。当然了，莱昂·巴格瑞特根本没有可能预测到国际互联网—— 就是把计算机连结到电话线路上，以便和世界上任何一个地方的人立即进行联系的一个世界范围的通讯系统——的发展。他也无法预测到我们可以利用国际互联网获取有关任何已知专题的信息，以便在家里的屏幕上阅读，如果愿意的话甚至可以将其打印出来。计算机已经变得体积越来越小，功能越来越多，价格越来越低，这就是莱昂·巴格瑞特的预测非凡的地方。如果他或像他这样的人今天还在世，他大概可以告诉我们下一个50年会发生什么事情。

* **was able to**：能够 / 无法；结合时间判断是一般能力还是某次实际做到；unable 带否定。

#### 这一段的读法与用法

注释：①并列的四个定语从句一同修饰a time，上版翻译有所遗漏，只翻译了其中一个从句，本版已补充\[感谢微博网友@朱砂有416种-橘指出20200928]。②how 引导的宾语从句作foreseen 的宾语，一直到subject。③so 引导的结果状语从句中有一个if 引导的条件状语从句。④considering 后接 how 引导的从句，整体作为评注性状语，表示“考虑到这些发展距今如此之近”。这里没有独立主格所需的“独立名词或代词＋非谓语成分”结构。

#### Summary 摘要

According to Bagrit, computers would be small enough to hold in the hand, and they would be able to provide information about traffic jams and suggest alternative routes. They would be used to help doctors diagnose illnesses, and in business would relieve office workers of dull, repetitive work. However, he failed to predict the use of the Internet as a vehicle of communication or a source of information. But as predicted, computers have become smaller, more powerful and cheaper. (79 words)

#### Composition 作文

\[1]Predicting what computers will be like in 20 years' time or what they will be able to do is a guessing game. If Leon Bagrit could not predict everything, what chance have I got? However, because prediction is just a calculated guess, I will try!

\[2]The development of the computer since the 1960s has been very fast. From large mainframe computers which filled whole rooms to small lap-top computers which you can carry in a shoulder bag or large handbag, it has taken only forty years. Computers are already smaller, more powerful and cheaper than they have ever been. So what might happen in the next twenty years? Let's speculate.

\[3]In twenty years' time it's possible that many people will be doing their everyday shopping by computer. The "virtual-reality"(虚拟现实) shop will be available through your TV set. You will be able to "walk through" your supermarket on screen, click or tick what you want, and then order it—and it will be delivered. In education, most students could be using computer-notebooks which make notes for them as they listen to a lecture or watch a demonstration experiment. In the world of travel, aircraft already have computer systems that will control auto-pilot. In twenty years' time, computers could actually pilot aircraft— with no need for a real, live human pilot at all.

\[4]Computers already help doctors diagnose disease and other health problems, and help in the control of body systems during operations. What else might they do in the future? They might actually control certain kinds of surgery (brain surgery, for example) where the human hand cannot always keep still enough, and power computer-operated limbs.

\[5]So there are some ideas. But who knows what might really happen? No one. No one can see into the future. We shall just have to wait and see. (307 words)

## 学完这一课

保留原段的推进关系，换成自己的经历，写或说一段四五句的话。

[Nce · 本册复习台](/new-concept/book-3/review) · [三册选择地图](/new-concept/)

*译文与解析据吴应时、何景霖整理资料及本站首轮审校稿；词伙与练习提示为本站学习设计。原PDF第180—183页，2022年2月第3版。*